As the world gears up for yet another Games (where did the last four years go?), experts are placing their bets on who will take home the gold. It’s looking promising for our green and gold team, with the latest projections from data specialist Gracenote tipping Australia to crack the top five on the overall medal table.
According to their forecasts, Australia is on track for its best Olympics in two decades, with a predicted 50 medal wins. If the Aussie team can hit this tally, it would match the number of medals we won at Athens in 2004 and just beat the 46 medals we won at the most recent Tokyo Games. We’d also bump up our placing on the total medal tally from sixth place in 2021 (which Gracenote was spot on in predicting) to fifth place in 2024.
Of the total 50 medals, the experts anticipate that Australia will secure 14 gold, 19 silver and 18 bronze. We’ll rely heavily on our flipper friends in the pool for majority of the golds, including Kaylee McKeown, Cameron McEvoy and Ariarne Titmus, along with Jessica Fox in the Canoe slalom. Australia is also pitted for podium success in the BMX freestyle, road cycling, sailing, track and field, diving, rowing, skateboarding and tennis, along with the women’s rugby sevens and hockey events.
Although it’s impossible to foresee how the events will actually unfold, Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table predictions are based on individual and team results in previous Olympic Games, World Championships and World Cups. The first forecast was published 100 days ahead of the Paris Olympics opening ceremony and will be updated twice more before the Games begin on July 26.
The United States is set to dominate the medal tally in Paris, yet again, with a projected 124 total medals. If achieved, this would make it their eighth consecutive Olympic Games win and their greatest medal haul since Los Angeles in 1984. China is expected to secure the second spot with 89 medals, followed by Great Britain with 66 and France with 55 – which would be the best Games performance for the host nation since 1990.